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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Chevrolet Volt - Deception on Wheels

THE BACKGROUND

There has been much written in the automotive trade and enthusiast magazines about the Chevrolet Volt and its remarkable mileage.    Government Motors has even decided to add to this hype by showing "Volt Huggers" (or as I call them, "Volt Humpers") who love their Volt and exclaim with glee that this "is the best car I've ever known".

Back in the 1980's a college bud and I actually thought of a vehicle in concept that wasn't that different from the Volt.   But we did not just mortgage our future on a single battery recharge technology.   Back in that period, 1980, personal computers were just irritating gimmicks and computer technology hadn't progressed very far.   There wasn't any consideration in our "pie in the sky" automobile that would use fancy electronics to control things.   We were relying on the same technology that allowed the alternator found in automobiles in that era to determine whether to charge or not to charge the  battery.    Nothing fancy.

Where we strayed from Government Motors pathetic attempt was that we gave up on the gasoline engine entirely.

A CONCEPT WITH THOUGHT BEHIND IT

This was 1980.

We studied charging systems and generators and found that most EFFICIENT systems were matched to a diesel generator running at a steady RPM to maximize the power band of that fossil fuel electricity generating source.    Never in our wildest dreams did we even consider driving the wheels of our vehicle directly from the engine - Government Motors initially did the same thing and then lied during its theft of taxpayer dollars saying their vehicle would not have direct drive capabilities.   Once the Volt reached production, Government Motors (fully knowing this earlier), stated that "yes, our Volt will rely on its turbo-charged, 4 cylinder engine that runs on premium gasoline in some situations."   That ended up being when the batteries were run down and when the car traveled at above 70-75 mph.

In our 1980's concept, we had a 1-2 cylinder bio-diesel powerplant that would run only when charging was needed.   It would run at a steady RPM that was its most efficient rpm range.    Even in 1980 there were such diesel power plants available OFF THE SHELF from major diesel engine manufacturers.   Ours happened to have been a Kubota system after carefully researching all the brochures we received from other manufacturers.

Our system in 1980 was actually going to be attached to a VW Beetle chassis and we even had the car but my parents wouldn't let me put it in the backyard.   And my college friend lived in a condominium and there was no hope for the location of the system there.   And so the dream pretty much died.

I mentioned we also had other inputs for charging the battery - some not even tried yet by manufacturers and I won't bother giving them a head's up, but a test using my ancient 1964 Ford Falcon demonstrated it would work.   We did use regenerative braking and solar - even imagining a molded skin with solar cells in it - we reached for the skies in those days.

THE LACK OF AN ECONOMIC CASE FOR THE VOkT

I mentioned earlier that the Volt is a car that simply cannot be sold on the premise it will ever save the owner a dime.   I know this seems odd, but here is the truth you NEVER see discussing the Volt.

Let's look at two cars - one a conventional, $18k vehicle that gets 40 mpgs on the highway.    Let's look at the Volt which costs you around $40k.    The Volt is still available with a tax credit of UP TO $7,500 which is figured at the next tax filing period - it is not deducted from the price of the car - and the full amount of the $7,500 is NOT available to everyone.   If your total taxes owed does not exceed $7,500, you will get the lowest of the two.   So if you had taxes of $5,500, your tax credit would only be $5,500.   You do not get the tax credit if you lease the vehicle.   In fact, there was some discussion about whether the mooch Government Motors might get the tax credit if you leased from them!

I'm going to simplify my discussion on the Volt's economics to the acquisition costs and what you can do with the total money you'd spend for the Volt's $40k cost.   Since you will be paying finance charges on the full amount (less any discounts you'd negotiate and plus any taxes and options you choose), I'll just consider the base cost of the Volt.    Of course since the Volt costs you more up front, your finance charges will be double the cost of the $18k right off the bat because $40k is well over double the $18k sticker price of the conventional vehicle.

Conventional Vehicle v. Volt

You could buy a Ford Focus, Ford Fiesta, Chevrolet Cruze, Chevrolet Sonic, Hyundai Elantra or Hyundai Elantra for $18k and get 40 mpgs on the highway - which btw is a higher fuel economy rating than the Volt gets on gasoline power only.

Since the $18k vehicle costs $22k less than the Volt, we have that money to spend on gasoline.    Let's assume $5 per gallon for the gasoline.   The cost of regular petrol right now is nowhere near that price so that should make the comparison with the Volt more difficult for the conventional car.  These vehicles use regular gasoline - the Volt uses Premium!

With the $22k you saved buying the conventional car, you could buy 4,400 gallons of petrol to drive your vehicle (assuming the $5/gallon cost above).  

Since this conventioanl vehicle will be driven all over, I won't even use the 40 mpgs figure to compare with the Volt.  Let's use 30 mpgs which is a bit lower than the average rating that the EPA gives these vehicles for their combined mpg rating.   30 is a nice round number which also happens to handicap the conventional car in this comparison.   It should make the case for the Volt stronger by using a weaker number for the conventional car.

Recall that we could buy 4,400 gallons of regular petrol with the money we saved NOT BUYING the Volt at $5 per gallon.  This conventional car is assigned a 30 mpg rating, which means you could own and drive a conventional car for 132,000 miles before you could drive ONE mile in your Volt!   At $4/gallon, you'd get to drive your conventional car for 165,000 miles (you'd be able to buy 5,500 gallons of petrol).

Ah, but you left out the $7,500 tax credit.   True.   The cost of financing a Volt at $40k is twice as much as the conventional car chosen here - which is the same size and class as the Volt if you will notice - so any tax credit the Volt may have is offset by its finance costs AND personal property taxes (where applicable) that you will pay EACH year on the value of the Volt.   In some states that can mean $300-$400 per year in property taxes - over a 5 year loan period, that is an additional cost added to the Volt over the conventional car.   So if you catch my drift, after you factor in finance and tax costs, that nearly offsets the Volt's tax credit.

So what does this mean to the average driver?

An average driver drives about 15,000 miles per year.    If you had $5 per gallon petrol costs, you could drive your conventional car for 8.8 years before you could drive a single mile in your Volt!    If the price of petrol were $4/gallon, you'd be able to drive and own (and have paid off) your conventional car for 11 years before your Volt could drive a single mile.

In short, there is no economic purchase case that can be made for the Chevrolet Volt over a conventional product.   It saves you no money when you factor in acquisition and ownership costs - it certainly has no advantage in finance costs.   The tax credit is offset by those finance costs.   And more importantly, the person who bought the conventional car will get to drive almost 9 years and 132,000 miles, before they spend enough to buy a Volt.


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